The average price of a product code can fall while every price in it rises
All the figures
| Measure | Value |
|---|---|
| Average landed price, two years ago | $3.91 per kilo |
| Average landed price, now | $1.95 per kilo |
| Typical shipment, two years ago | $4.19 per kilo |
| Typical shipment, now | $7.51 per kilo |
| Ground support bolts | $1.83 per kilo |
| Buckles, hooks and rivets | $2.66 to $6.50 per kilo |
| Active importers | 636 |
| Share held by the top three | 56.9% |
| Typical shipment | 28 kg, $184 |
| Share of volume in October to December | 58.4% |
| Ground support bolt, per piece | $5.54 |
| Buckle or rivet, per piece | about $0.02 |
A rock bolt for an underground mine and a buckle for a coat arrive in Peru under the same product code. Nothing in that code separates them, and both get averaged into the same price per kilo.
That average has been falling fast. It went from $3.91 a kilo to $1.95, which reads like a market in free fall.
The typical shipment moved the other way over the same period, from $4.19 a kilo to $7.51.
Both figures come from the same rows. Only the way of counting changes.
Why the two numbers disagree
The average is weighted by weight, so whatever is heavy decides it. The typical shipment is the middle one of the list, so whatever is common decides it.
When a code holds two industries with different weights, those two rules stop agreeing.
Ground support for mining is the heavy side. Inflatable friction bolts, omega bolts and hydrabolts land at about $1.83 a kilo and travel in tonnes.
The light side is haberdashery. Buckles, hooks and rivets land between $2.66 and $6.50 a kilo and weigh almost nothing per piece, which is why two cents buys one.
The average halved while the typical shipment went the other way
Average landed price against the median shipment
What actually happened
Mining volume grew. The heavy, cheap side of the code expanded faster than the light, dear side, and the weighted average slid toward it.
No supplier lowered a price to produce that slide. The composition moved underneath a number that was never designed to describe a product.
The size of the mistake
A supplier quoting ground support who benchmarks against the code average is quoting against a blend that includes buckles. A supplier quoting hardware who does the same is quoting against a blend that includes tonnes of mining steel.
In this code the gap between the two industries is roughly threefold by weight. Counted the way each industry actually buys, one piece at a time, the distance opens up: a ground support bolt lands at $5.54 and a buckle at two cents. That distance is the whole negotiation.
Counted the way each industry buys, the two are not comparable
Landed price per piece, 2025-2026
Where the market really sits
The code covers 636 active importers, and three of them hold 56.9% of the value.
Underneath that, the typical shipment weighs 28 kilos and invoices $184. Thousands of small buyers sit behind a headline that looks like a bulk industrial market.
Origin splits the same way. Buying from China means joining 484 other importers who together take 19% of the volume.
Buying from Spain means joining 13 importers who take a quarter of it. Sweden is five importers and a sixth.
Those are two different ways of selling into the same country, and the code average describes neither.
The seasonal layer
There is one more thing a quote should carry. October, November and December hold 58.4% of the yearly volume, and April holds almost none of it.
A price discussed in April and a price discussed in October are not the same conversation, because the second one happens while the buyer is committed and the first one happens while the buyer is planning.
What to do with this
Three checks before a price leaves your desk. Price against shipments that resemble yours in weight class rather than against the code. Quote in the unit the buyer orders in, which here is the piece and the thousand, never the kilo that appears on the paperwork. And place the conversation in the calendar before you place the number.
A country average is a fact about a code. It is rarely a fact about the product being sold.
Frequently asked questions
Why did the average price fall while shipments got more expensive?
The average is weighted by weight, so a heavy and cheap product family growing inside the code drags it down. The typical shipment is the middle of the list, so it follows what is common instead. In this Peruvian import code the average fell from $3.91 to $1.95 a kilo while the typical shipment rose from $4.19 to $7.51.
What is actually inside this Peruvian import code?
Two industries. Ground support for underground mining, which is inflatable friction bolts, omega bolts and hydrabolts at about $1.83 a kilo, and haberdashery hardware such as buckles, hooks and rivets at $2.66 to $6.50 a kilo.
How concentrated is the market?
There are 636 active importers. The largest holds 29.2% of the value, the top three hold 56.9%, and eleven companies reach 90%.
When does the volume actually move?
October, November and December carry 58.4% of the yearly volume. April carries 0.9%.
Which unit should a quote use?
The unit the buyer orders in. In this code that is the piece and the thousand pieces, not the kilo that appears on the import paperwork.
The figures behind this piece
Every company in this trade, with volume, price and the other side of the flow. Ask for the file that matches your partida.
Reply to info@garaycompany.comPrefer a sample first? Ask for one and it lands in your inbox.